Trading Log

The government's Your First Home equity loan, 20% with a 2.5% deposit on new builds, sent the housebuilders up 11% to 15%. Budget detail on the caps and developer fee will decide how much sticks, but I see further potential in the coming months.

The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% for a sixth meeting, on a 6-3 vote. With CPI at 3.1% and wholesale gas up 78% since July, the next move rests on how long the Iranian conflict, and the Hormuz closure, lasts.

The Federal Reserve has hiked for the first time since 2023, yet headline inflation of 3.4% is being held up by one component, energy, which the futures market prices to fade. More reason to look for a Nasdaq break higher than a break lower.

Buyers remain cautious. Berkeley reiterates April’s around-25% production reduction while maintaining its £1.4bn four-year pre-tax profit plan.

Profit guidance cut again and the covenant timetable slips, but net debt is £30m better than guided. My 160.97p asset valuation is unchanged.

The NASDAQ off around 2.6% overnight and Korea hit hard, but the names at the centre of it were not expensive going in. A positioning flush, not a re-rating.

Barclays downgrades several UK housebuilders on a second wave of cost inflation, with price targets cut 26% to 49%. Berkeley is the sole overweight. The market barely moved.

The Nasdaq has bounced off the same support three times in three weeks. A small long at 24,373 with a tight stop at 24,139.